The housing prices will fall by 6% and the sector will not restart until 2014, Bankinter
| Date: September 8, 2010 | Source: AlertNet |
| Category: Economy | |
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Loading ... The housing prices will fall an additional 6% over the next three or four quarters, until the second half of 2011, after which time enter into a stabilization phase which will last until 2013 to return to pick up slowly in the late that year or early 2014, Bankinter.
In a report, the agency explains that this is because the "stock" of unsold homes, which he estimates is situated in the 900,000 homes, will not descend until you net jobs created in late 2012.
"If events develop in this way, throughout 2013 the current" stock "could be cut in half, a situation that would allow the reactivation of residential construction during 2014 and probably also the prices," notes the report .
Among the reasons for the delay in the absorption of "stock" are mainly three: the real estate portfolios of banks and, above all, of the boxes, the supply of housing used, output is difficult because the owners are reluctant to "throw "prices, and overexertion have to do families to become homeowners.
On this last point, Bankinter said that the withdrawal of the residence deduction for incomes above 24,000 euros from 2011 and the increase in VAT from July will play an important role. In this regard, notes that "these measures should be reflected in an expansionary phase of the cycle."
WHY IS STILL RAISING HOUSES?.
The report asks why they are raising houses about 18,000 homes per quarter, if sales of new buildings are completed and balanced at around 230,000 units a year.
In his view, maintaining a slight activity reflects housing already committed by builders and financial institutions to develop land purchased and foreclosed assets, respectively.
"If these developments are not made, its valuation would be even lower and would represent a bigger problem for both parties," as would a reduction in its financial value, the report said, adding that "this inertia is inevitable, although tending to depleted over the next two years. "
However, Bankinter riveted to the recovery of the economy and employment, estimated for 2013, will lead to a resumption of construction "unforced" New housing and return to the activity of the promoters at the end of that year.
In conclusion, Bankinter estimates that "the real estate sector faces a period of time in the wilderness about three years in terms of demand and prices." "The recovery of the Spanish housing market could take place from 2014 or something before employment would improve if" sentence.
