| Date: October 19, 2010 | Source: AlertNet |
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Loading ... China has moved tab in the currency war, even if it was with a modest rise in interest rates (0.25 points to 5.56%) . The increase represents an attempt by the Chinese authorities to control inflation and reorder their own economic growth. The move could weaken the dollar against the yuan and China decide to allow the most favorable exchange rate between the dollar and the euro.
The Chinese central bank has raised rates for the first time in nearly three years, a move that has surprised the market, at least in the fact of having done so quickly, since, as noted by Marian Fernandez, head of strategy Inversis Bank "the tendency was suspected that it would produce, after having recorded the monetary aggregates and real estate prices over the schedule." After the surprise move could be some data on GDP and inflation will be announced this week that higher than expected.
The rate hike has been taken by surprise to the markets, which have reacted to the floor. The bags, oil and gold fell after the announcement by the Chinese central bank. At the same time, the dollar rose and acted as a refuge by the tightening of monetary policy of the Asian giant.
"Externally (is) a message clear to the international authorities on the relative stability of the yuan, "says a recent Citigroup report, adding that can accentuate the rise of the yuan. However, Citi also clarifies that the rate increase is too small to rise to great changes and disturbances. Among other things, debt sales are "light" and the situation remains "unchanged in the European country risk." Meanwhile, Marian Fernandez is skeptical about the yuan as the currency is tapped, "out of a free float."
By contrast, Alexis Ortega, managing partner of Finagentes says that "the yuan should be strengthened. This is a continuation of an ongoing process of "depreciation of the dollar, especially against the yuan." Thus, the Chinese authorities "accept" a weaker dollar against the yuan, but "decide" the exchange rate dollar / euro European currency, according to Ortega, it should not fall below $ 1.35.
"The medium-term passes a falling dollar and a cast of his fall between major currencies (euro, yuan, yen)," said Ortega. "The euro will have to bear the cost." With less intervention of the authorities, "the market more flexible is the euro". In addition, China has been buying European debt, according to the expert Finagentes, which would explain the improvement of the bonds of some countries such as Ireland, despite having suffered downgrades.
In this sense, the euro currency has been the most vulnerable among the major world currencies. In the current scenario of currency war, the EU has remained on the sidelines. As a result, the euro has appreciated against other currencies, causing a detrimental effect on exports from the Old Continent.
From recent months, China keeps its currency artificially low, encouraging exports and hurting the trade balance of countries like the U.S. and Japan have launched a counter protectionist passing through the devaluation of their currencies. Pressures on China resulted in small revaluation of its currency this summer, something judged as insufficient by the United States.
Control of inflation and growth reordering
But the rise in rates has an obvious interpretation in internal key. Although the Chinese authorities had declared their confidence in controlling inflation, the next data, which will be known on Thursday, may yield a figure higher than expected. In August, China's annual inflation was 3.5% and analysts expect an increase to 3.6% in September.
Meanwhile, China's GDP grew by 10.3% in the second quarter. Data for the third quarter, also published this week, may show signs of overheating of the economy that contribute to a rise in prices.
In this sense, the measure of the Chinese authorities would seek to "avoid asset bubbles," says Marian Fernandez. It would also be "adjusting their growth," so far focused on external demand, with a very positive trade balance result of a relatively low yuan. In this sense, the rise in interest rates is also aimed at domestic demand and should encourage the return of investors to the country.
| Date: August 23, 2010 | Source: Europa Press |
Go ahead and rate this post Loading ... Surpass China in 2010 to Spain in the ranking of international tourist arrivals to 54.6 million compared to 52.7 million planned for Spain in the estimates of the World Travel Tourism Council (WTTC).
Complied with the agency estimates, Spain, therefore, lost the third position in which was placed in 2008 and placed in fourth position, behind China, USA, and France.
France will continue to hold leadership mundual with 70.9 million international visitors, followed by the U.S., with 55.5 million.
WTTC estimates that fourth place in Spain at least until 2020, when record 65.7 million visitors, far behind the 81.1 million U.S., which remains third.
This year China will have already taken to France's leadership potential first world tourist arrivals, with 1.0346 billion, up from 92.5 million the Gallic country.
In 2009, Spain retained the third spot on the podium of world tourism with 52.2 million visitors, up from 50.9 million arrivals from China, according to the latest barometer of the World Tourism Organization (WTO) , published in June.
The statistics of international tourist arrivals are moving upward in recent months. So, this morning the Ministry of Industry revealed that the arrival of foreign tourists to Spain increased by 4.5% in July, up nearly seven million, the largest increase since May 2008.
However, the general secretary of Tourism and Domestic Trade, Joan Mesquida, was today told Europa Press, more concerned about the increase in tourist spending in the sector while health is measured in numbers of arrivals.
With regard to the progress of China, Mesquida said that Spain's leadership in international tourism is "very clear", but acknowledged that efforts should be made to "improve competitiveness".
| Date: April 17, 2010 | Source: Sources |
Go ahead and rate this post Loading ... The Greek debt crisis has exposed the weaknesses and anomalies of the euro , starting with not foresee a scenario of bulky default and the predominance of speculative forces. This is Europe to the brink of a chain reaction that can cause the fall of successive major economies like Portugal, Italy and Iceland. And all by having a currency that is tied up.
Therefore, Morgan Stanley has warned that to avoid a fatal chain of events, the most practical is to request a withdrawal from Germany of the euro, since it is the axis of conflict. In a recent article , I made a comparison of debt dispute between China, U.S., Germany, Europe. If the U.S. pressure on China to revalue the yuan, why not press Europe to Germany to get out of the euro and revalue its own currency?
Follows more closely the original source of this post here .
| Date: March 19, 2010 | Source: Reuters |
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The multinational Google announced on Monday plans to abandon its business in China after two months of rifirrafes with censorship regime in Beijing, said today the financial newspaper China Business News.
According to the report, Google abandon its business in China ( Google.cn ) on 10 April, and sources cited as an employee and an anonymous sales agent of the U.S. company in the People's Republic, the largest Internet market with 384 millions of users.
Contacted by Efe, the spokespersons of the Californian company in China were not available for comment from the Chinese newspaper.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology told Efe that has no news on Google's announcement, to be informed in writing of his renunciation of the Department of Commerce.
The U.S. multinational January 12 accused Beijing of being involved in cyber attacks suffered political dissidents, businessmen and journalists in their email accounts hosted on their servers and threatened to leave the Asian country if the regime does not give up its Internet censorship .
The Chinese regime has denied involvement in the attack, calls for topics related content censor "sensitive" as the killing of students at Tiananmen, repression in Tibet and Xinjiang and other violations of human rights, a limitation which Google agreed in 2005, as did Yahoo or Microsoft.
Censorship concerns in addition to these political content, pornography, which proliferates in most local websites.
Analysts already ahead in January than in the struggle between the Asian country and the company president Eric Schmidt , the second had everything to lose.
"Google has been in a difficult situation in China for some time, betraying his philosophy and although it has generated benefits have not been as many as potentially could be expected," summed up in January Efe Mark Natkin, director of consulting firm Marbridge Consulting, based in Beijing.
Natkin then recommended Google to abandon its business in Mandarin and keep the form in English, as can happen.
In the last week the U.S. press said the possibility that Google abandon China was 99.9%, citing company sources, after Schmidt said that the outcome of negotiations with Beijing would be known soon.
The possible closure of Google's business in China would occur before your license expires in April contained a document that allows foreign firms to operate Internet in China had to be reviewed by the Ministry of Industry and Technology Information.
The minister of this portfolio, Li Yizhong, said this month that Google "is free to leave or stay," but that if he left, "the Chinese Internet industry is not affected."
The Global Times newspaper reported today that Google's main rival in China, the local search engine Baidu increased its market share in 2009 to 76%, while that of the U.S. company was reduced from 20.7% to 18.9, a level never reached higher than America Online, eBay or Yahoo in China.
At the same time, the Chinese government has withdrawn from its website a letter allegedly signed by 27 partners in China Google's advertising claiming compensation for possible abandonment, spread widely by state media, after 22 of these firms say that they had nothing to do with the letter.
| Date: January 5, 2009 | Source: The Reason |
Go ahead and rate this post Loading ... In the city of Dongguan was made one of every three toys in the world. But the crisis came, and half of its factories had to close. The economic collapse and threatening the future of communism in the Asian giant.
Managers and idly bored, workers returning to their villages after having lost their jobs, goods and cargo stacked empty. It is a scenario that is repeated by industrial parks and ports of the country that have been supplying the Magi in the last decade. Exactly one year ago, 75 percent of toys sold in the world from China. Today the carol may be changing: the economic crisis has given the lace to an industry that has seen its black year since the world began to open in 1980. In short, the Kings continue to source in the Far East, but now travel lighter luggage.
The main problem with toys "Made in China" is located, to be exact, in the antipodes. They are American and European families who, burdened by the global crisis, have decided to tighten a cordon of austerity under Christmas trees. Although there are no global data, Asian financial authorities say the drop is about 25 percent over last year, perhaps even more in demand in the U.S., its largest trading partner. These figures are ominous considering that 90 percent of China produces toys that have just sold out of its borders.
The worsening crisis has placed the flag bullfighter, but the problems come from afar. Specifically, last summer, when several items of defective and potentially dangerous toys up a scandal in the U.S. press that later spread throughout Europe. Several dealers were forced to withdraw or destroy stocks of products as well known as some of the Mattel brand, thousands of orders were canceled and spread the message, sometimes exaggerating to give the impression that import toys from China amounted to putting endanger the health of children.
After the smoke came the reaction media policy: hardened import requirements were strengthened quality controls and were required to Chinese producers greater guarantees. Today many manufacturers (especially small ones) recognize that they can meet the new regulations and they are forced to close.
In fact, the toy have not stopped Chinese dwarves regrow in 2008: some industries claim that production costs have risen about 50 percent and that are being hit hard by the devaluation of the dollar and the strengthening of the yuan This situation makes them less competitive.
The cerrojazo
At the same time, many multinationals have begun to escape to other emerging countries (like Vietnam). The effects are already devastating: in the "city of toys", Dongguan, which capitalized in 2007 to 30 percent of world production, have been closed since about half of the 3,800 factories registered on January 1 last year , most small and medium businesses that had just taken off and were heavily indebted to optimistic investment boom times.
Nor earthbound domestic demand, as Chinese families still preferring savings and education of their children. As Long says Sunjung, a wholesaler of Canton (the region with the highest income countries), the parents prefer to give away clothes and school supplies or computer. "Most of our children make their own toys. They should study, have no time to lose games. "
The economic slowdown and job losses in manufacturing plants are causing unprecedented uncertainty in China's capitalist take-off, which just now celebrates its 30th anniversary. According to business daily "Cajing" ten million arrivals from the field workers have lost their jobs during the month of November. Of these, at least half have returned to their villages of origin. Most worked in factories manufacturing cheap textiles, shoes and, of course, toys.
They have families like Guoren, an old gnarled hands peasant who works the land for 32 years in a small town in the Guangxi region, are now suffocated. Contrary to the laws of birth (in rural areas allow two descendants), have raised a brood of four children, encouraged by the overwhelming development of their environment. He sent the two largest work in nearby factories in Guangzhou and wanted to book a better fate last to arrive. Using remittances from the firstborn, borrowing, selling land and working overtime, got to send them to college. His only daughter, Coco, learning English, and the small, Yan, he enrolled last year in computer engineering.
The soil no longer works
In October, the dream became a nightmare Han: his second son lost his job in a factory making Christmas decorations. And the old homeland that has been cultivated for decades and no longer works: without investing in machinery or animals, is in a dead end. "My father has no money, only debts, and I'm about to finish school but no work. We do not know what to do, "laments Coco, who fatten the list of millions of Chinese graduates can not find work.
The government fears that the economic slowdown, the situation of millions of peasant families that are in the state of Han, cost him a social explosion. For decades, the Communist Party has shamelessly aired an equation which is based on the architecture of its political economy with growth below eight percent, the brilliant but fragile earth rise of the new medium could collapse. In 2008 the country paid little over nine percent. For 2009, analysts expect the figure falls below the six. If this happens, Beijing would need a plan B.
The government plans to revive the toy industry are similar to those exposed to breathe oxygen to the rest of the productive machinery: public works and social benefits financed from the huge savings in foreign currency accumulated in recent years. And above all, new horizons for expansion. Many toy factories have been clinging to an official program to reinvent itself in the burgeoning industry of digital animation and cartoons. Modernize, invest in technology, is your new goal.
Meanwhile, the producers do not lose optimism, relativize the losses and look to new markets to place their toys, such as the Middle East, Africa, India, and Southeast Asia. "If Europe and America has no money for toys, go to other countries. Furthermore, I believe that whatever happens in the West continue celebrating Christmas, "he reasons, perhaps without much conviction, marketing director of a major exporter of Dongguan.
HOLD THE SPANISH
Despite a significant slowdown, more than half of Spain imported toys from China from abroad: about 58 percent of the total. That's right: Toy Asian crisis has not gone in vain and the figures are considerably lower than the previous year, almost five percent less than in 2007. And, for once, the good news are on this side of the border. In a world on the brink of global recession, the Spanish toy industry maintains the type, at least in exports. According AEFJ between January and September 2008 were sold abroad more toys than the same period last year. "Efforts have been offset by an increase in exports, which have surpassed 5.3 million euros (1.9 percent) figures for the same period in 2007," says the association. Spanish Toys have gained market share in Portugal, Italy and the Netherlands, but have lost gap in U.S. and Mexico.
| Date: December 16, 2008 | Source: Economic @ 21 |
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Today, the Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve has decided to reduce interest rates by at least 75 basis points to set the rate in a target range between zero and 0.25%, its lowest level since that interest rates became the main monetary policy tool of the U.S. central bank.
This is hosted by the North American market with euphoric rises, sending the Dow Jones rises more than 4% as investors discounted hikes of 50 basis points by the institution you head Ben Bernanke.
This rate cut is already 500 basis points cut that carried in the last fifteen months in an attempt to halt the deterioration in economic activity.
The decision to drop at least those 75 points could have been undertaken as a desperate measure to tackle the crisis with a claw trying to revive the economy and consumption in the U.S., which is interpreted positively by the effort that is done, but leaves open a major unknown, since it has exhausted its main source of control in the Fed's monetary policy to redirect market expectations. Obviously you have other weapons, but the main and most powerful seems to be consumed at the U.S. enters into uncharted territory in terms of monetary policy is concerned, to now be in a new historical situation.
This news add another regarding the credit situation that crosses the Federal Reserve ( FED ), which according to various published media, if it were a commercial bank would be technically bankrupt, since according to these requirements, you must have minimum capital of 2% on the loans granted, which according to this requirement, the Fed does not meet the minimum reserves which must follow any financial institution. Specifically, barely 1.9% of its assets. Currently, the Fed needs almost 48,000 million dollars to recover the capital ratio that is required of commercial banks by Gerald P. O'Driscoll, a member of the Cato Institute and former vice president of the Dallas Fed.
The institution he leads Ben Bernanke is flooding the market with dollars in order to save the country's financial system. However, its balance sheet, ie, the total volume of loans granted by the Federal Reserve, has tripled in recent months to levels not seen before: from 900,000 million to almost 3 trillion today. If this amount are added liquidity injections applied by the U.S. Treasury, the total bill of the mega-bailout amounts to astronomical figures, close to 8.5 billion. Nearly 60% of U.S. GDP.
With the measures taken and the limited room for maneuver which is now the EDF , the true short-term result will be the likely collapse of the dollar against the euro, which places the switch today at $ 1.406 per euro traded at least until see if the ECB's decision moves in line with similar or equivalent monetary policy aggressively talking.
Separating what is true of what could be, the main course could be, hang on, the resurgence of news feed conspiranóicas voices that talk about this already planned and that you are looking for is not intended to reactivate the aconomía , also, but a hidden agenda, which seeks to devalue the dollar against other world currencies, to release the Amero as currency saving, paying off foreign debt, especially with China, and revive the economy. The Amero is already an urban legend in the network, but the fact remains that begin to fulfill the conditions must be met for supposedly being able to carry out this hypothesis.
With this, I would like to open a line of discussion on what you think about it, that is, if the Fed actually remaining resources to revive the economy or otherwise consuming them at an accelerated pace is seeing that the effects last only in the short term and there is no other solution in the long run than a new world economic order. What do you think?
