| Date: September 8, 2010 | Source: AlertNet |
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Loading ... The housing prices will fall an additional 6% over the next three or four quarters, until the second half of 2011, after which time enter into a stabilization phase which will last until 2013 to return to pick up slowly in the late that year or early 2014, Bankinter.
In a report, the agency explains that this is because the "stock" of unsold homes, which he estimates is situated in the 900,000 homes, will not descend until you net jobs created in late 2012.
"If events develop in this way, throughout 2013 the current" stock "could be cut in half, a situation that would allow the reactivation of residential construction during 2014 and probably also the prices," notes the report .
Among the reasons for the delay in the absorption of "stock" are mainly three: the real estate portfolios of banks and, above all, of the boxes, the supply of housing used, output is difficult because the owners are reluctant to "throw "prices, and overexertion have to do families to become homeowners.
On this last point, Bankinter said that the withdrawal of the residence deduction for incomes above 24,000 euros from 2011 and the increase in VAT from July will play an important role. In this regard, notes that "these measures should be reflected in an expansionary phase of the cycle."
WHY IS STILL RAISING HOUSES?.
The report asks why they are raising houses about 18,000 homes per quarter, if sales of new buildings are completed and balanced at around 230,000 units a year.
In his view, maintaining a slight activity reflects housing already committed by builders and financial institutions to develop land purchased and foreclosed assets, respectively.
"If these developments are not made, its valuation would be even lower and would represent a bigger problem for both parties," as would a reduction in its financial value, the report said, adding that "this inertia is inevitable, although tending to depleted over the next two years. "
However, Bankinter riveted to the recovery of the economy and employment, estimated for 2013, will lead to a resumption of construction "unforced" New housing and return to the activity of the promoters at the end of that year.
In conclusion, Bankinter estimates that "the real estate sector faces a period of time in the wilderness about three years in terms of demand and prices." "The recovery of the Spanish housing market could take place from 2014 or something before employment would improve if" sentence.
| Date: August 10, 2010 | Source: Europa Press |
Go ahead and rate this post Loading ... The housing prices in Spain could fall by 75% by the contractionary effect on demand of an aging population, just as the "baby boom" caused an increase in its value when these generations reach adulthood and began to buy homes.
This is one of the main conclusions drawn from a report by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which explains that, according to demographic projections for the next 40 years, only Portugal would experience even more severe impact on housing prices.
With decreases in the vicinity of 75% would fall also countries like Greece, Germany or Italy. The impact would be lower in the English-speaking countries, such as Ireland, Canada or the U.S., where the cut would not exceed 50%.
"Estimates suggest that the real price of houses will face a substantial negative pressure during the next 40 years because of aging," the report said.
However, the Bank for International emphasized that these estimated price declines are not specific forecasts, so that house prices would grow substantially in spite of population pressures, while also linked to social variables economical.
In this regard, the report notes that between 1970 and 2009 prices rose in Spain more than 300% in a scenario of demographic impact neutral, while in Finland increased by about twice the drop expected.
| Date: July 19, 2010 | Source: Reuters |
Go ahead and rate this post Loading ... The Association of Cement Manufacturers of Spain (Oficemen) said today that home prices should fall to 40% depending on the surplus of unsold completed properties that exist in each geographical area to enable the sector to recover.
Oficemen President Joaquin Estrada, said today at a press conference that the market should adjust "to the actual prices and not prices that were set in the middle housing bubble."
He also noted that "housing need" is maintained regardless of the economic situation, and that in areas like large cities, which account for increased demand, the adjustment will be lower, while the coast is expected to lower prices increases.
On the other hand, Estrada praised the government initiative to encourage home renovation, an activity which, in his view, is "key" to develop a construction "more sustainable".
Oficemen President also welcomed the announcement of a deal of state for energy by the Government and the PP, because in his view, this agreement "may delimit the energy costs and make the market turn around normal. "
In this sense, Estrada said that "the price formation of electricity market in Spain is Kafkaesque, both in good times and depression" and that the utilities have caused "great damage" to the cement industry.
He added that the latter "does not buy the energy in a free market, but is artificially manipulated" and that "the risk of transfers of undertakings" for this cause "remains the same."
| Date: April 1, 2010 | Source: Sources |
Go ahead and rate this post Loading ... The price adjustment in the housing sector will continue at least through 2012. That's what I think the Bank of Spain , which in its latest report projections for the Spanish economy slows recovery in prices until almost two years. Specifically, he argues that the central bank "is expected throughout the projection period [2010 to 2011] a continuation of the profile of this variable drops."
This means that the economic recovery will be so slow that GDP will fall this year (period average) 0.4%. And what's even more important, the year 2011 will close with an increase in activity only 0.8%, very little to reduce unemployment. But also to redirect the public deficit, which experts of the Bank of Spain hardly cut. For this year an imbalance of public accounts equivalent to 10.2% (compared to 11.2% in 2009), while culminate next year with a deficit of all the public administrations of 8.9%. The Government has already provided this year's fiscal deficit would stand at -7.5%, far from the central bank forecasts.
This means that the objective of bringing the deficit to 3% at the end of 2013 seems highly unlikely, unless further cuts in public spending or a sudden increase in revenue, since that would mean having to cut the imbalance in three points GDP in both 2012 and 2013. And that can only be achieved with economic growth exceeding the 3%, which would require a vertical exit global crisis, which currently preclude joint institutes.
The differences between the estimates of the Government and the Bank of Spain are not relevant in this year. They are important, however, regarding the year 2011, since the Vice President Salgado has estimated a growth of 1.8% compared to 0.8% of the Bank of Spain.
The central bank attributed this low growth profile of the persistence of "unfavorable conditions" in the labor market, so it would continue destroying jobs, although at rates much lower than those observed in 2009, while the unemployment rate "would register a small additional increase in annual average. "
Moreover, he argues, the long set of residential investment is not over yet, so that in 2010 will continue to constitute "a drag on growth, although to a much lesser extent than it was in 2009." Additionally, "expect" that in the current year, to continue the process of adjusting the financial position of private agents (households and firms), "given the high debt levels achieved." Finally, the report says, "the deterioration of the creditworthiness of some borrowers, with a consequent increase in default rates, credit policy condition of the bodies."
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| Date: February 26, 2010 | Source: Sources |
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In the U.S., housing is needed drops to 73% in the most extreme cases to bounce. The 20 areas of the U.S. where prices fell more housing until the housing market has shown signs of resurrection, according to the popular real estate portal zillow.com . Falls in the top 20 areas ominously missing from the standpoint of real estate ranging from 46% in Orlando (Florida) to 73% of the grant (california)
The U.S. housing tsunami has clearly two disaster areas: California and Florida. 17 of the worst areas across the U.S. are in those states, which are accompanied by some points as Las Vegas (Nevada), Phoenix (Arizona) and Reno (Nevada)
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As shown in the table, many of the affected cities are metropolitan areas with large populations. for example, Phoenix has more than 1.5 million people and the top 20 average is about 260,000 inhabitants, more than 15 major Spanish cities and comparable to areas such as Vigo (Galicia's most populous), Gijón (the largest nucleus of Asturias), A Coruña, vitoria, pomegranate, Hospitalet de Llobregat (Barcelona) or móstoles (madrid).
In Spain, only the hardest hit areas are approaching the lower range of the top 20 United States. according to the ranking of the worst areas of Spain prepared by idealista.com, Sagunto (Valencia), Brunete (Madrid) and Hospitalet de Llobregat is the worst performing localities from highs. them, prices have fallen by 36%, 33% y 29%, respectively.
This entry echoes extracts from articles published in zillow.com and idealista.com .
| Date: December 20, 2009 | Source: Economic @ 21 |
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Spain, along with Denmark and Ireland, one of only three European countries that have not yet been no rise in quarterly housing prices since the start of the credit crunch, according to the 'world price index housing 'Frank Knight for the third quarter.
The real estate consultant indicated that these three countries have in common that there is a glut of homes that stops rising prices.
This contrasts with the UK, "despite having suffered an initial blow, is experiencing a strong recovery due to the shortage of houses for sale, contributing to higher prices, and demand that exceeds supply. "
Thus, Spain is the twelfth country in which most prices fell in the third quarter, down 8%, in a ranking of 42 countries prepared by Knight Frank.
THE PRICE RISES 70% IN THE COUNTRY.
According to the consultancy, the price of housing is rising almost everywhere in the world and in the third quarter of 2009, there was an increase in approximately 70% of the countries in this world index. This figure was around 50% during the first half of the year.
Within the table, Israel showed the best results with an annual increase of 13.7%, the only two digits, while Dubai is at the tail, down 47%.
Moreover, much of the Asian economies also shows good results, with quarterly growth of 6% in Hong Kong and 2.5% in mainland China. Even in countries such as Singapore (+15%), the strength of the recovery suggests another housing bubble.
Finally, Knight Frank says that the price of housing remains lower than a year ago in almost 60% of countries in the index, which does not mean you can ensure that prices move in a one-way path ".
| Date: May 26, 2009 | Source: Europa Press |
Go ahead and rate this post Loading ... The next July 1 will be liberalized energy sector, which will force the consumer to electrical services through dealers and not directly with the supplier, as happened so far, unknown situation that 80% of consumers said today the Spanish Confederation of Housewives, Consumers and Users (Ceaccu)
A study on a sample of 1,200 families, the consumer association denounced the "lack of information" about the new situation in the energy market, and shows that seven in ten respondents revealed not received any information.
With the application of Law 27/2007, citizens must choose between different traders, which Will Bid the power from the Last Resort Rate (TUR), maximum price set by the Ministry of Industry for the free market.
Thus, just over a month for the Royal Decree enters into force, Ceaccu urged the Minister of Industry, Miguel Sebastian, to set a TUR, since, according to the organization deprives the consumer of the "right to choose" between best prices, so we advise "no rush" to hire a marketer.
FEAR FOR THE RISE OF TUR
Also, the confederation expressed his "fear" with "more than likely" rise of the current reference rate. According to predict from the association, industry applies a "large increase" in TUR for "attractiveness" the trading market, which will mean "more costs for users."
The report notes the lack of knowledge about the responsibilities and rights in the new energy landscape. 40% claim that they know to whom, trader or supplier, you should complain to any problems, while only 12% knew the law to compensation for prolonged interruptions, always in excess of six hours per year.
SOCIAL BOND "INOPERATIVE"
As for the new social bond, which would freeze the electricity bill to disadvantaged groups such as families or families with all members unemployed, only 10% knew the requirements to adhere to this tariff, while 24% attributed it to low incomes.
Ceaccu, who insisted that the beneficiaries of this social tariff does not depend on their income levels, considered "administrative negligence" the necessary procedures to apply and benefit from this bonus. "Many consumers seek the social tariff, but the red tape is very long, up to 4 months," he said from the pro-consumer group.
Finally, the association urged the Government to expand consumer information on liberalization, TUR and marketers through advertising campaigns in the media, because "if not, many problems arise from 1 July. "
